The Disease Modelling Specialist will lead technical work to generate Kenya's first comprehensive national and sub-national estimates of Asthma, COPD, and PTLD. The position will involve a mix of data analysis, model development, stakeholder engagement and evidence translation into actionable policy recommendations. The Disease Modelling Specialist will report to the Senior Director — Infectious Diseases.
Responsibilities
Conduct a structured review of global and regional methodologies used to estimate the burden of asthma, COPD, and PTLD.
Summarize methodological options, data requirements, assumptions, and limitations applicable to the Kenyan context.
Recommend the most appropriate estimation approach for Kenya.
Model Design and Implementation
Identify, adapt, or develop statistical/mathematical models to estimate disease burden and prevalence, using available national and sub-national data sources.
Implement models in reproducible code (such as R or Python), applying best practices in epidemiological modelling and sensitivity analysis.
Generate scenario-based estimates (e.g., conservative, moderate, and high estimates) and quantify uncertainty intervals.
Compile and clean relevant datasets, including national and county-level population data, health facility data, national surveys, TB program data, and other relevant epidemiological studies.
Establish and maintain a data catalogue and documentation system.
Consolidate datasets for model validation and testing.
Validate model assumptions and results through stakeholder review meetings and expert consultations.
Cross-check outputs against comparable international and regional estimates.
Refine models based on feedback and incorporate validation results into technical documentation.
Produce clear and comprehensive outputs, including:
A technical report detailing methodology and results.
Policy briefs and data visualisations summarizing key findings for decision-makers.
Slide decks and summary infographics for advocacy and dissemination.
Support the development of advocacy materials to inform resource allocation and program prioritization for asthma, COPD, and PTLD.
Conduct hands-on training sessions for Ministry of Health and partner staff on model interpretation, data analysis, and maintenance.
Develop user-friendly documentation and standard operating procedures (SOPs) to enable institutionalisation of the model.
Develop a detailed work plan and deliverables schedule aligned with program timelines.
Coordinate regularly with government counterparts, academic partners, and implementing agencies.
Prepare periodic progress reports, presentations, and technical updates for program leadership.
Perform any other duties as assigned.
Qualifications
A degree or higher in Epidemiology, Biostatistics, Public Health, Mathematical Modelling, Health Metrics, Mathematics, Statistics, Computer Science, Health Economics or related field.
At least 4 years of experience in disease burden estimation, epidemiological modelling, or quantitative health research.
Demonstrated experience in using and developing models for estimating prevalence, incidence, or disease burden.
Strong proficiency in statistical software such as R, Python, or Stata.
Proven ability to manage and analyse large datasets from multiple sources.
Experience working with ministries of health or public health institutions in low- or middle-income countries.