Innovating Finance Hub for Anticipatory Action Consultancy - RFP-RO01-004112

Terms of Reference (TOR) for Innovating Finance Hub for Anticipatory Action

1.Who is the Danish Refugee Council?

Founded in 1956, the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) is a leading international NGO and one of the few with a specific expertise in forced displacement. Active in 40 countries with 9,000 employees and supported by 7,500 volunteers, DRC protects, advocates, and builds sustainable futures for refugees and other displacement affected people and communities. DRC works during displacement at all stages: In the acute crisis, in displacement, when settling and integrating in a new place, or upon return. DRC provides protection and life-saving humanitarian assistance; supports displaced persons in becoming self-reliant and included into hosting societies; and works with civil society and responsible authorities to promote protection of rights and peaceful coexistence.

2. Purpose of the consultancy

The Danish Refugee Council (DRC) is establishing an Anticipatory Action Innovation Hub in the East Africa & Great Lakes (EAGL) region to serve as a thought leader in exploring innovative financing mechanisms for anticipatory action (AA).

3. Background

The global rise in fragility, accelerating frequency and magnitude of climate shocks and resulting humanitarian need, combined with tightening fiscal space and political appetite for aid budget increases are contributing to pushing Anticipatory Action (AA) to the top of many aid finance agendas (e.g. Grand Bargain).

The global practice of AA has primarily been designed around climate-related risks (e.g. floods, droughts), but rising fragility, conflict and forced displacement have made AA for man-made hazards an emergent area of focus and innovation for AA practitioners and their funding partners, and is an area where DRC holds a pioneering position, based on DRC’s predictive analytics and its various AA pilots: DRC currently implements AA programs across 13 countries (Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Uganda, South Sudan, DR Congo, Yemen, Burkina Faso, Niger, Myanmar, Colombia) with a further 8 under consideration, and it is gradually scaling up organizational AA capacities and expertise across its country operations.

In 2024, DRC launched the global Anticipatory Action Pooled Fund (AAPF) under the AHEAD project, a source of Pre-Arranged Financing (PAF, also described as ex ante financing) designed to operate in alignment with DRC’s Global Emergency Response Fund (GERF), which will allow for flexible disbursement of anticipatory finance based on forecast triggers and community-based monitoring mechanisms.

Meanwhile, PAF structures developed by various AA practitioners have been growing in sophistication (IFRC Forecast-based Action - FbA by Disaster Response Emergency Fund - DREF, Start Network’s Start Ready Risk Pool, etc.), leading to an accelerating drive for best practice in AA finance from various parties, including working groups in the Risk-informed Early Action Partnership REAP (DRC is a member) and the announcement in March 2025 of a global Community of Practice for pooled funds, hosted by Start Network. Drawing on an initial consultancy conducted under the ECHO ERC project in Somalia that provided initial thinking on innovative financing for AA, the hub will use the data gathered under activations from the AHEAD project and use the pilot countries as case studies to build out the business case for innovative financing for anticipatory action. The hub will serve as an external thought leader in innovating financing for AA, crowding in additional ideas through convenings and workshops on the subject, fund technical experts for additional idea development and test refined approaches in the pilot countries.

4. Objective of the consultancy

The Lead Consultant will establish and manage the EAGL AA Innovation Hub to:

• Build the evidence base for cost-effectiveness and ROI of anticipatory finance using AHEAD + any other AA activations
• Develop investment cases and crowd in additional funding for conflict-focused anticipatory action through innovative financing mechanisms and partnerships (including with private sector) that are attractive to both donor and private capital financing, in consultation with the DRC AAIF workstream
• Strengthen community financing structures to support the adoption of anticipatory action
• Act as external thought leader in innovative financing for AA through convenings and development of knowledge products, in consultation with and on behalf of the DRC AAIF workstream

5. Scope of work and Methodology

The Consultant will be required to prepare a detailed methodology and work plan indicating how the objectives of the project will be achieved, and the support required from DRC.

Focus 1: Evidence and Cost-effectiveness analysis

Deliverable a): Cost-effectiveness analysis report comparing early vs. late response using AHEAD activation data and pilot country case studies. Suggested Activities: Analyse AHEAD project activation costs, outcomes, and avoided losses, quantify time savings and efficiency gains from early action

Deliverable b): Inform the AAIF workstream. Suggested Activities: In consultation with AHEAD and AAIF workstream

Deliverable c): Pilot implementation results with documented lessons learned and best practices. Suggested Activities: Monitor and evaluate pilot lending programs (In consultation with AAIF workstream)

Deliverable d): Regional landscape analysis of funding activities (e.g., ARDIS, Tearfund (Malawi crop insurance) and participants (e.g. Global Parametrics, Humanity Insured, ARC, etc.) Suggested Activities: Regional mapping of technical experts on AA financing, conduct funding investor landscape mapping and readiness assessments, Engage with impact investors, DFIs, insurance, financial service providers and other potential private sector partners – in consultation with AAIF

Focus Area 2: AAIF workstream Investment Cases for AA

Deliverable a): Business case AA financing concept note portfolio development including blended finance, risk layering (including insurance-based solutions) and/or pooling mechanisms (minimum 3 cases, focused on delivery in East Africa & Great Lakes) tailored to different funder/investor types (impact investors, DFIs, foundations, government funds) Examples include (but not limited to): insurance-based solutions, first-loss guarantees for financial service providers. Private sector engagement strategy with mapped potential investors, potential entry points and pilot investment opportunities. Suggested Activities: In consultation with AAIF workstream: Engage with impact investors, DFIs, insurance, and other potential private sector partners

Focus area 3: Community Financing Structures

Deliverable a): Community finance landscape analysis mapping existing. Suggested Activities: Assess capacity of existing SCGs/VSLAs and MFIs for emergency fund management.

Deliverable b): SCGs/VSLAs in pilot countries Capacity building program with training materials on forecast-based financing for community groups. Suggested Activities: Develop simplified early warning communication tools for community use Train community groups on AA concepts and emergency preparedness.

Deliverable c): Integration protocols linking SCGs + VSLAs with early warning systems and EWEA committees. Suggested Activities: Create trigger mechanisms for community fund release.

Deliverable d): Community-based contingency planning tools and emergency fund management protocols. Micro-insurance product pilots delivered through SCG/VSLA networks. Suggested Activities: Design incentive mechanisms for sustained community participation

6. Deliverables

The Consultant will provide the documentationby mail, email, USB key/Word, Excel, PowerPoint, PDF, etc.

Cross cutting Products:

• Policy Brief Series (6 briefs): Six briefs on innovative AA financing trends, disseminated quarterly throughout the contract period, targeted at different audiences (donors, private sector, practitioners, policymakers)
• Regional workshop reports (minimum 4 convenings over 24 months)
• Evidence repository accessible online with case studies and lessons learned
• Replication toolkit for establishing similar hubs in other regions

Please find the complete set of deliverables stipulated in the Terms of Reference.

7. Duration, timeline, and payment

The total expected duration to complete the assignment will be no more than 2 years, however the consultancy is deliverable based and the payment systems are linked to them.

8. Proposed Composition of Team

1.Project Manager – Hub lead

Required Background

1. Advanced degree in finance, economics, public policy, development studies, or a related field.
2. 10-12 years of progressively responsible experience managing complex, multi-country programmes in humanitarian, development, or innovative finance sectors.
3. Strong experience working with donors, development finance institutions, private sector partners, and humanitarian actors.
4. Demonstrated leadership in managing multidisciplinary teams and coordinating workstreams.
5. Good facilitator for convening workshops
6. Deep understanding of anticipatory action, disaster risk financing, and early warning/early action systems.
7. Proven track record in strategic planning, project governance, and high-level stakeholder engagement.
8. Excellent analytical and communication skills; capable of synthesizing evidence and influencing policy/financing agendas.
9. Experience managing consultancies or technical hubs.

2. Financial/economic analyst (Evidence and Cost-effectiveness analysis of AA)

Required background

1. Master’s degree or higher in economics, econometrics, statistics, finance, or development economics.
2. 7–10 years of experience conducting cost-benefit, cost-effectiveness, or ROI analyses for humanitarian or development interventions.
3. Experience working with anticipatory action, shock-responsive social protection, or climate/disaster risk finance is highly desirable

3. Business development and investment specialist

Required background

1. Advanced degree in finance, business administration, investment management, or related fields.
2. 7–10 years of experience in impact investing, blended finance, financial structuring, or development finance.
3. Demonstrated experience working with DFIs, impact investors, institutional investors, or insurance providers.

4. Community financing expert and knowledge management

Required background

1. Degree in communications, knowledge management, social sciences, or humanitarian/development studies.
2. 5–7 years of experience in knowledge management, partnership facilitation, and organisational learning - preferably within humanitarian or development sectors.
3. Demonstrated experience organising multi-stakeholder convenings, workshops, and high-level dialogues.
4. 7–10 years of experience working with Savings and Credit Groups (SCGs), VSLAs, MFIs, or community-based financing mechanisms.
5. Experience working in emergency preparedness, early warning/early action, or shock-responsive community systems.
6. Skilled in convening diverse actors (government, private sector, NGOs, research institutions).
7. Experience supporting communities of practice and regional learning platforms.
8. Strong writing, synthesis, and communications skills.

Additional Expertise (Optional but Highly Valued)

• Parametric insurance or climate risk finance specialist
• Early warning systems technical expert
• Monitoring, Evaluation, Accountability & Learning (MEAL) specialist
• Regional experts with deep knowledge of EAGL context

7. Eligibility, qualification, and experience required

Essential Requirements

• Advanced degree in finance, economics, development economics, or related field
• Minimum 7-10 years’ experience in innovative financing, impact investing, or development finance
• Demonstrated experience with microfinance, FSPs, or community-based financial mechanisms
• Strong analytical skills with ability to conduct cost-effectiveness and ROI analyses
• Proven track record in product development and pilot program management
• Experience working in Anticipatory Action, preferably in humanitarian or development contexts
• Excellent English written and verbal communication skills
• Experience with stakeholder convening and workshop facilitation
• Experience with anticipatory action or disaster risk financing
• Knowledge of humanitarian finance and emergency response systems
• Experience with blended finance structures and impact investment
• Understanding of early warning systems and conflict analysis
• Network of contacts in impact investing and development finance
• Experience with parametric insurance or climate risk finance
• Experience with microfinance, FSPs, or community-based financial mechanisms
• Existing relationships with DFIs, impact investors, or insurance providers

Please note that this consultancy welcomes applications from consulting firms and from groups of individual experts who choose to apply together. However, the team must apply as a single registered entity for contractual and administrative purposes.

8. Technical supervision

The selected consultant will work under the supervision of:

• Dushyant Mohil, Regional Anticipatory Action Coordinator
• Mercy Kanyari, Innovative Finance Coordinator
• Sacha Gayama, Global Lead Innovative Financing

9. Location and support

The consultant can work remotely or be based in East Africa. The Consultant will provide her/his own computer and mobile telephone.

10. Travel

The only anticipated travel is workshop-related, and this will be covered by DRC.

The consultant is expected to organize the workshop together with the Innovative Finance Specialist abovementioned, and all associated costs will be borne by DRC.

11. Submission process

Please refer to the RFP Invitation Letter

12. Evaluation of bids

Please refer to the RFP Invitation Letter

13. Additional Information

For additional information regarding these terms of reference, please send your questions to Regional Supply Chain Manager EAGL RO: procurement.ro01@drc.ngo.

Please find complete bidding documents in the following link: Innovating Finance Hub for Anticipatory Action - RFP-RO01-004112

How to apply

Bids can be submitted by email to the following dedicated, controlled, & secure email address: tender.ro01@drc.ngo

When Bids are emailed, the following conditions shall be complied with:

• The RFP number shall be inserted in the Subject Heading of the email e.g. "Innovating Finance Hub for AA - RFP-RO01-004112"
• Separate emails shall be used for the ‘Financial Bid’ and ‘Technical Bid’, and the Subject Heading of the email shall indicate which type the email contains
  • The financial bid shall only contain the financial bid form, Annex A.2 or vendors financial bid in own format
  • The technical bid shall contain all other documents required by the tender, but excluding all pricing information
• Bid documents required, shall be included as an attachment to the email in PDF, JPEG, TIF format, or the same type of files provided as a ZIP file. Documents in MS Word or excel formats, will result in the bid being disqualified.
• Email attachments shall not exceed 4MB; otherwise, the bidder shall send his bid in multiple emails.

Failure to comply with the above may disqualify the Bid.

DRC is not responsible for the failure of the Internet, network, server, or any other hardware, or software, used by either the Bidder or DRC in the processing of emails.

Bids will be submitted electronically. DRC is not responsible for the non-receipt of Bids submitted by email as part of the e-Tendering process